South Africa takes G20 helm as polarisation complicates agenda

By Kopano Gumbi

South Africa takes over the G20 presidency on Sunday, the first African country to lead the forum, though its focus on issues such as inclusive growth and climate change risks bumping up against the hard reality of trade wars and diplomatic tensions.

Coming a year after the African Union was admitted as a permanent member of the G20, South Africa's turn at the helm is seen as an opportunity to push for progress on policy areas crucial to the continent's development.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has cited inclusive economic growth, food security, climate change and artificial intelligence as priorities, with details expected next week.

South Africa is the fourth emerging market in a row to assume the G20 presidency, which rotates annually, after Indonesia, India and Brazil, and Ramaphosa has said his country would seek to build on the work of those predecessors.

The United States will take over in December 2025 under the leadership of Donald Trump, whose incoming administration has threatened to introduce restrictive trade tariffs on nations including Canada, Mexico and China, raising fears of trade wars.

Trump has also largely rejected the scientific consensus on the impact of human activity on climate change and vowed to dismantle climate-related policies he will inherit from President Joe Biden.

"It will be important for South Africa to ensure that it consolidates positions of the Global South and hands over to the U.S. a solid legacy on issues to avoid the U.S. and Global North diluting or undermining the whole agenda of the Global South," said David Monyae, director of the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg.

POLARISED WORLD

The G20, which includes 19 sovereign nations as well as the European Union and African Union, was established to bolster global economic cooperation. It represents 85% of the global economy, 75% of world trade and 67% of the global population.

However, with members such as the United States, China and Russia in open confrontation over trade and wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and elsewhere, global polarisation complicates the G20's stated mission.

The International Monetary Fund and rating agencies have warned that increasingly protectionist trade policies were a threat to global growth and could hit emerging market economies the hardest.

Laura Rubidge, foreign policy researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs, said the G20 presidency would give South Africa a chance to advocate for more effective reforms.

She said progress on issues such as sovereign debt, the IMF's Common Framework and improving the World Trade Organization's dispute settlement mechanism could help further Ramaphosa's inclusive growth objective.