More than a decade later, Is Nigeria safe from Boko Haram?

Formed in 2002 in northeast Nigeria and opposing Westernization, the group aimed to uproot corruption and injustice perceived to be caused by Western influences, initially advocating for Islamic law. Over time, it shifted focus to avenge the death of its founder Muhammed Yusuf who was killed in a military crackdown.

The conflict primarily affected the Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states collectively known as BAY states in the northeast. Nigeria became the world's fifth-highest in armed conflict-related deaths. Since 2009, Boko Haram's militarization has led to over 35,000 deaths with the group associated with 42% of Nigeria's violence-related deaths from 2009 to 2014. Other impact includes the displacement of 2.4 million people, food insecurity, disease outbreaks, forced migration, and infrastructure loss.

By 2017, Boko Haram had recruited approximately 8,000 children, committing numerous violations against them including death and sexual violence. They’ve attacked schools, hospitals, churches, homes.

Despite the government's efforts, it remains unclear if Nigeria has fully brought Boko Haram under control.

Efforts to bring Boko Haram under control

In April 2013, Boko Haram rejected a proposal from Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan to offer amnesty to its militants if they disarmed. The group said they had committed no acts warranting amnesty.

Later in June President Jonathan officially declared Boko Haram a terrorist group and banned them under Nigerian law, permitting their prosecution when caught.

In 2014, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions including the freezing of assets, travel bans and arms embargo on individuals in Boko Haram, but the group's informal structure rendered these measures ineffective.

2016 saw the National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST) being enacted by the Nigerian government, and a committee on security in North Eastern Nigeria being established.

In 2018, international media Reuters reported that the government was engaged in talks with Boko Haram, aiming for a potential ceasefire and, ultimately, a lasting resolution to the conflict.

Then in 2021, Nigeria announced it would not negotiate with the group, saying it was a sign of weakness, opting to use its power to address security concerns.

How safe now is Nigeria from Boko Haram?

Islamist militants suspected to be Boko Haram militants recently beheaded at least 10 farmers in Nigeria's Borno state after attacking their farms in July 2023. A week earlier, the same group killed 25 people and wounded others in attacks on two villages in Borno.

In November 2023, 160,000 Boko Haram members surrendered and later in December the International Organization for Migration said the rehabilitation about 2,311 out of 160,000 surrendered Boko Haram members have been rehabilitated and reintegrated into society. The remaining he said were still undergoing rehabilitation.

On January 9, Nigeria's local media Vanguard said it had observed that dozens of people were killed by the terrorist group in Borno and Gaidam council area of Yobe state, along with abductions on highways and communities in the last month of the group’s renewed attacks.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on January 16 assured that his administration would eliminate the remaining threats of the terrorist group in Nigeria

Why hasn’t Nigeria defeated Boko Haram yet?

Boko Haram persists due to challenges in cutting off their access to funding, recruits, and weapons. The group's recruitment efforts are effective, and there are corruption concerns about funds allocated for the anti-Boko Haram campaign ending up in individuals’ pockets. Negotiations with the group have also faced setbacks.

Research reveals about 6.5 million small arms and light weapons in Nigeria, with only a fraction under the control of security forces, indicating a substantial amount of uncontrolled weaponry and the inadequacy of the military compared to the weaponry potentially in the possession of militant groups like Boko Haram.

In the face of ongoing challenges from Boko Haram, Nigeria seeks lasting security. The question of Nigeria's safety remains, demanding the need for concerted efforts in addressing this enduring threat and securing a safer future.