How Reuters calculated the Trump Organization’s financial situation

How Reuters calculated the Trump Organization’s financial situation

By Tom Bergin

Reuters sought to estimate the cashflow being generated by former President Donald J. Trump’s various businesses to try to understand how that business has changed over the past decade and the extent to which over $500 million in court judgments against him may put strains on that business.

Reuters used established methodologies and consulted with experts in the different industries in which The Trump Organization operates to establish its estimate of around $80 million in cash after operating expenses from Trump’s businesses in 2024.

With respect to Trump’s interests in real estate – the business on which he built his reputation – Reuters looked at each of the properties in which Trump has an interest individually. For income-yielding properties like his office tower at 40 Wall Street or the retail units at Trump Tower in New York, Reuters worked off net operating income and rental rate figures produced between 2011 and 2021 by The Trump Organization released as part of the New York fraud trial against the group. Reuters also used information about commercial mortgage backed securities in which the group's mortgages have been packaged, and financial information from property tax appeals.

These were adjusted by Reuters for additional costs such as routine capital expenditure and leasing fees based on expert guidance and historic averages. Reuters also deducted debt costs, which can be ascertained from his Office of Government Ethics (OGE) Candidate financial disclosure, state property records and information released as part of the fraud trial.

Historical net operating income (NOI) figures were checked against tax returns and adjusted to reflect current market conditions, vacancies and other variables, based on expert advice. There’s uncertainty about rental rates and occupancy levels.

In total, Reuters estimated that Trump will generate free cashflow from property rental and sales in New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Las Vegas and Florida of around $3 million in 2024. It would have been higher were it not for the April repayment of an around $12 million loan related to Trump Plaza in New York.

For Trump’s golf and resort properties, Reuters worked off published accounts where these were available, and net operating income figures produced by an expert hired by the New York Attorney General in the fraud case. The expert’s NOI calculations were broadly similar to, if usually somewhat lower than, income figures in valuations produced by a Trump expert in the case. They were also largely consistent with tax return information released by the Ways & Means Committee in 2022.

Reuters adjusted 2021 earnings based on revenue increases at the clubs projected by the Trump expert. Reuters cross-checked the revenue forecasts, produced in 2023, with industry trends and revenue figures Trump reported in his OGE disclosure in August 2024.

Reuters’ forecast excludes major capital expenditure on upgrades. Reuters found no reports of major new upgrades at his properties being planned in 2024, but its estimate that Trump’s clubs may generate around $70 million this year could be too high.

Trump earns money from licensing his name to foreign real estate developers and publishes the revenue received in his OGE financial disclosures. Reuters estimated Trump will receive a similar amount from existing deals in 2024 as in 2023 —a possible over-estimate – and added amounts for each of the two deals announced this year consistent with the payments he received on previous deals.

Reuters estimated $11 million of losses at the Trump Corporation, the entity which provides a centralized management function to the Trump Organization, based on figures in Trump’s tax returns released by the House Ways & Means Committee in 2022.

Reuters excluded the multi-million dollar legal costs related to Trump’s various court proceedings on the basis that much of this is being met by his campaign supporters. Also, Reuters reduced the cost of operating his fleet of aircraft to a fraction of historic levels because his campaign pays to lease aircraft from him.

Reuters also excluded any federal income tax payments.