Deadly reality of Mexico's 2024 election

The country has long been in the news and limelight for the wrong reasons as insecurity and violence have become the order of the day.

Under the leadership of incumbent president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 2024 has been one of the most violent years in the history of Mexico. Dozens of candidates have tragically lost their lives during the lead-up to Mexico's general election.

The most recent bloodshed was the gunning down of a mayoral candidate, Alfredo Cabrera in Guerero on Friday, May 31—just some two days before Sunday's elections.

The latest tragic incident raises the number of candidates who have lost their lives in the 2024 election period to 37. This figure exceeds the total fatalities recorded in the 2021 midterm elections, which stood at 36, according to data from Integralia, a firm specialising in security analysis.

According to a watchdog group, Civic Data, 2023 was the most violent year in Mexico, however, 2024 is taking the crown.

"2023 was the most violent year in our database. And everything suggests that 2024 will be worse," the group said.

These conclude that Mexico's future president's number one job will be to disrupt the works of violence and destruction orchestrated by drug cartels and gangs.

Drug cartel dominance

Gangs and drug cartels happen to run the country, killing and vandalising at the slightest provocation.

In Sunday's elections, which will decide the presidency, nine governorships, and roughly 19,000 local positions, it seems that Mexico's drug cartels and gangs are exerting a greater influence than in previous elections.

In the lead-up to Sunday's elections, there was a noticeable escalation in gang activity, with incidents of shooting at entire campaign gatherings, destruction of ballots, obstruction of polling station establishment, and the display of banners intended to sway voters' decisions.

Julián López, the Citizen Movement party's coordinator in Guerrero, endured a harrowing ordeal when armed assailants kidnapped him and two associates on February 7. The 43-year-old was subjected to physical assault, robbed, forced to kneel by a secluded waste site, and eventually left alone in the dead of night.

According to security expert, David Saucedo, there is a strong possibility of drug gangs attempting to coerce voters into choosing the candidates they endorse, as reported by AP.

“It is reasonable to assume that the cartels will mobilise their support bases during Sunday’s elections,” Saucedo said. “They have loyal voters who they have won over through the distribution of food packages, cash, medicine and infrastructure projects. They will use them to support narco-candidates,” he said.

However, a new dawn seems to be in sight with the tight competition between Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City, and Xóchitl Gálvez, also a former mayor of Mexico City's Miguel Hidalgo borough.

Sheinbaum, who focused her campaign on decreasing the homicide rate in Mexico City during her mayoral tenure, may confront significantly more daunting obstacles in replicating this achievement in regions such as Michoacan, where the influence of criminal organisations surpasses anything she faced in the capital.

However, she is unfazed as she promises to lead the country in a way that protects and preserves women and children from violence.

"We're going to make history. I say to the young women, to all the women of Mexico – colleagues, friends, sisters, daughters, mothers and grandmothers – you are not alone," Sheinbaum said during a rally.

Similarly, Xóchitl Gálvez posits that she will be the bravest president ever as she will tackle violence and crime head-on.

"You will have the bravest president, a president who does confront crime," Gálvez added.